Manukau’s business and economic environment - July 2010
Manukau Quarterly Economic Review
Manukau’s business and economic environment - July 2010
The New Zealand economy has continued to recover over the early months of 2010. However, risks to the short-term outlook persist due to problems in European debt markets and fragile domestic confidence. Despite these problems, we expect the domestic recovery to consolidate over 2010 as international conditions improve and commodity prices hold up. Economic activity is expected to rise 3.7% in the year to March 2011, followed by a 4.0% increase in the year to March 2012.
The Manukau economy is struggling to pull out of recession. Economic output declined by 2.1% in the year to March 2010 compared with the previous 12 months. Poor performances by the manufacturing, trade, and transport industries were the major contributors to the decline.
The labour market weakened further over the year to March 2010 with employment declining by 1.8%, the number of registered job seekers increasing from about 10,000 to 15,700 and the unemployment rate reaching 7.7% from 7.4% in March 2009.
Prospects for the construction industry remain relatively weak. The number of residential consents in the year to March 2010 dropped to 558 from 599 in the previous 12 months. The value of non-residential consents fell by 34% to a level last seen in 2004.
On the positive side the housing market has bounced back strongly with house sales rising by 32% and prices by nearly 9%. This underpins a lift in consumer confidence, which is reflected in a healthy increase in retail sales.
Table: Regional growth indicators (year to March 2010 compared with previous 12 months)
|
GDP |
-2.1% |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
Employment |
-1.7% |
-2.0% |
-1.8% |
|
Job Seekers* |
-57% |
-66% |
-63% |
|
Unemployment rate* (% point change) |
-0.3% |
-1.4% |
-0.9% |
|
Retail Sales |
7.8% |
5.1% |
2.3% |
|
Residential Consents |
-6.8% |
-2.4% |
-5.3% |
|
Non-residential Consents |
-34.2% |
-12.0% |
-5.1% |
|
Electricity consumption |
2.1% |
1.0% |
2.2% |
|
House Sales |
31.7% |
35.8% |
25.2% |
|
House Prices |
8.7% |
8.7% |
6.1% |
|
Guest Nights |
1.6% |
-1.7% |
2.0 |
Source: Informetics and Statistic New Zealand
* An increase in the number of registered job seekers and the unemployment rate is shown as a negative.
For more information please read the July 2010 Quarterly Economic Review for Manukau.